Good morning to everyone!
It's beginning to look like Friday and Saturday will be our rainy days this week, as an approaching cold front threatens the area with thunderstorms.
The Atlanta National Weather Service office had this to say in their morning forecast discussion:
STILL LOOKS LIKE BETTER MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN IS CENTERED ON FRIDAY... BUT THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE HIGHER SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY IS GREATER AND BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS BRUSHES THE REGION WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW TO MID LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE EITHER DAY... BUT NOT ALL-TOGETHER ABSENT EITHER... SO ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TRENDS AS THE END OF THE WEEK APPROACHES. DRY AIR FILLS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
The Storm Prediction Center is saying this right now... a little too far ahead for them to focus on, but this gives some idea what may be approaching our area:
SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT. BUT... WITH THE ONSET OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...IF NOT BEFORE... ACROSS ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY... BUT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY A 40-50+ KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SPEED MAXIMUM...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
Temperatures behind the cold front are... not cold. We should return to normal on Sunday with sunny skies and highs in the upper 60's to 70 degrees. Great day for an autocross, come out to the Turner Field lot with the big blue wall, it's free!
I added a new page for the Atlantic sea conditions. Scroll down to wave height... wouldn't want to be out there.
She's really getting wound up today!