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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.

FXUS62 KFFC 170230 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

No changes to the forecast. Light rain and drizzle chances
increasing during the night and more so Sunday.



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 603 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

The difference of two airmasses seen across the area this afternoon.
Behind a weak cold front, persistent low clouds over northwest/north
central GA has resulted in temperatures struggling to get out of the
40s. While 60s and lower 70s exist across the southern/eastern half
of the area (generally south/east of a Athens to Macon to Columbus
line). Within vicinity of remnant cold front, a few light showers
exist across far south locations (Americus to Cordele to Vidalia)
but expect this activity to diminish over the next few hours

Tonight, low lvl flow quickly turns around to the East-northeast
ahead of next area of low pressure approaching from the Lower MS
River Valley. Low clouds along with very light rain/drizzle will
increase in coverage by daybreak. Outside of areas socked in by
clouds this afternoon, temperatures will fall back into the 40s and
50s most areas overnight.

Sunday-Sunday night: Rain showers are expected to become more
numerous and organized across north Georgia as pronounced (40-50kt)
southwest flow at 850mb advects moisture/energy overtop low lvl
"wedge". The center of low pressure and associated front will enter
north GA Sunday evening before slowly moving east Sunday night into
Monday morning. Looking at 1-1.5" of rain possible from this wave
across the northern third of the area. Do not expect any widespread
flooding but some creeks/small streams may approach bankfull or
minor flood stage given saturated grounds from last night`s rainfall.
Temperatures won`t fluctuate too much, especially in "wedge" zone
(east of I-75 and north of I-20).


LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
For the long term...Monday may be the only dry day observed in the
period as the front that pushes through late Sunday gets far
enough into S. GA that drier air can filter in the the state. By
Late Monday..isentropic lift commences as moisture returns off of
GOM in between the strong Caribbean 500mb ridge and the deep western
US Trof so clouds should be on the increase through the day

By Tuesday the combination of strong isentropic ascent and energy
associated with short waves traversing the deep SW flow aloft will
aid in increasing the rainfall intensity across the northern
portion of the state. A long time QPF forecaster..now retired..at
the New Orleans office once said to me to always watch the
1000-500mb thickness values in the face of strong moisture
advection as a rule of thumb and if they remain relatively
unchanged to watch out for heavy rainfall...which is what we are
faced with. GFS isentropic analysis is some of the strongest I`ve
seen in a while for both late Tue and Wed. Analyzed the 295k
surface which showed 100mb of ascent from CSG to N. GA amidst
45-50kts of upglide which increases into the overnight which is
abnormally strong. At the surface, CAD begins to set up across the
northeastern portion of the state which will only enhance the
isentropic surface by making it an even steeper ascent in the
wedge. Best overall forcing may stay a bit back to the west in
Northern AL and TN late Tue/Tue Night...however, the entire region
is within the diffluent sector in the right entrance region of
the 250mb jet pushing through the TN and OH Valleys. Combined with
orographic and some of the heaviest rain for the week will likely
occur beginning late Tue through late Wed. In addition...PW
values continuously increase through the period topping out per
12z GFS in the 1.6-1.7 inch range on Wed..which if verified would
be an all time record value in the month of Feb per SPC sounding
Climatology (old record 1.59" on Feb 22).

By Thursday...isentropic lift abates a bit but is still decent enough
that rain will continue. In addition..there is some hints that
the warm sector expands a bit north owing to some surface
instability. Have added Thunder as a possibility on Wed into Thu
as a result. However, given the continued SW flow aloft and the
chance that weak short waves could ripple through the flow...not
as confident in the forecast beyond Wed in terms of nailing down
when the rainfall intensity will be highest. Regardless...will
have higher chance pops through the rest of the extended into
Saturday. There could be a brief reprieve day in between short
waves, which the ECM is suggesting for Friday...however...too much
uncertainty to bake it into any forecast attm.. Both the Euro and
GFS both hold off and kicking out the main energy to change the
pattern until after day 7...which when it occurs would be another
strong shot of heavy rain...and even potentially a severe threat.
Will cross that bridge...assuming it isn`t flooded...later.



00Z Update...
Potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings developing overnight along
with IFR/MVFR vsbys in -RA/-DZ/F. Improvement to MVFR ceilings
will be most likely at CSG/MCN and not ATL/AHN. Surface winds
becoming ENE overnight 10kts or less E to S during the day

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for lower vsbys.
Medium confidence for ceilings.
Medium to high confidence for winds.



Athens          45  51  46  63 /  50  80  80  20
Atlanta         49  60  49  59 /  50  70  90  20
Blairsville     42  52  41  55 /  60  80  90  10
Cartersville    46  57  45  58 /  60  80  90  10
Columbus        57  72  56  65 /  30  40  60  30
Gainesville     44  48  44  60 /  60  90  90  10
Macon           53  69  57  66 /  30  30  60  30
Rome            45  61  45  57 /  60  90  90   5
Peachtree City  50  65  51  61 /  50  60  80  20
Vidalia         54  74  62  68 /  20  20  40  30





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