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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
AFD issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.

385
FXUS62 KFFC 210206
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1006 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019



.UPDATE...

Minor adjustments to fcst with little change. Quiet, mostly clear
night on tap. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 757 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019/

UPDATE...

00z Aviation update below.

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 214 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Models in good agreement for the short term. H5 ridge builds through
the short term which will suppress any convection but at least allow
for a cu field to develop Tuesday. At the surface a ridge of high
pressure will build into the CWA tonight, briefly shifting the winds
to the northeast, but this will be short lived as the surface high
moves off the Atlantic coast and a winds shift back to the southwest
by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal. Tuesday
highs will be nearly 10 degrees above normal at most locations
across the CWA.

On a personal note, this will be the last AFD I will write for the
National Weather Service. After 33 1/2 years of working for the
National Weather Service I am retiring. It has been a pleasure
and honor serving the people of Youngstown, OH, Bismarck, ND and,
for the last 25 years, the people of north and central Georgia. I
will always have fond memories of the NWS and the people that I
have worked with. God Bless!

McMullen

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Ugh! For anyone complaining about the cold temps 3 months
ago...the upcoming heat wave is your fault.

Unanimous agreement in the models over ridging that develops
through the week as a deep trough entrenches itself across the
western US into the foreseeable future. GFS and ECMWF agreeing on
both the placement and intensity of the center of the 500mb and
700mb ridge over Central and Western GA by Thursday Afternoon.
Forecast 500mb heights of 595dm over CSG and 594dm over ATL on
Thursday would be all time May high heights per SPC sounding
climatology as well...by a long shot. By Saturday, 500mb ridge
starts to flatten and shift slightly south however...forecasts of
the 700mb ridge peak by Saturday which spells greater thermal
capping through the weekend. Air quality issues will likely become
more of an issue through the weekend as a result.

Low end Tstorm chances on Wed and Thur across North and Northeast
GA where the mountains may act as an elevated heat source for
storm initiation...but expect those chances to decline into the
weekend as the 700mb ridge strengthens and maximizes the CAP.

Not only will daily records be in jeopardy starting Friday through
Monday, but all time May highs are also either currently forecast
or will come close.

For reference, the all-time May Record highs are as follows:

Atlanta - 97 degrees F in 1914 and 1941
Athens - 100 degrees F in 1918 and 1926
Columbus - 100 degrees F in 1916 and 1937
Macon - 99 degrees F in 1898, 1953, and 1967

Daily records located below in the climate section.

Stellman

CLIMATE...

Records for 05-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KMCN      97 1960     65 1899     73 2000     46 1931
   KAHN      96 1912     65 1966     71 1998     42 1931
   KATL      95 1996     60 1895     72 2000     45 1892
   KCSG      99 1933     73 1977     74 1996     47 1892
                                        1933

Records for 05-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     100 1926     65 1979     71 2004     46 2013
                            1956                    1979
   KCSG      98 1912     71 1979     75 2000     51 1979
                            1956                    1931
   KMCN      97 2000     65 1923     74 2000     49 2013
                1960                                1979
                1953
   KATL      93 1960     63 1895     72 2004     46 1979
                1953                    1953

Records for 05-26

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      99 1911     63 1963     72 2004     41 1979
   KATL      94 1936     64 1923     73 1989     43 1979
                1916        1901
                1911
   KCSG      98 1933     75 1961     74 2000     47 1979
                            1906        1989
   KMCN      98 1962     69 1901     72 1921     49 1979

Records for 05-27

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      97 1916     70 1997     71 1991     40 1961
                            1961
   KATL      95 1916     62 1901     75 1916     41 1961
   KCSG      98 1916     65 1901     76 2012     45 1961
                1911
   KMCN      99 1953     67 1901     74 1991     45 1961
                                        1953


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions thru fcst period. Some lingering FEW cu near 6-7
kft in the next hour or two then mostly clear overnight. Again 4-6
kft FEW cu field for Tuesday. Winds initially on west side 6-10
kts quickly decreasing to light or calm overnight. KATL could have
shift to light NE after about 08z tonight, SE later in the
morning, and SSW by 18z. Could get back SSE for Tuesday evening.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  91  68  90 /   0   0   5  20
Atlanta         67  90  69  89 /   0   5   5  20
Blairsville     55  84  62  83 /   0   5   5  20
Cartersville    62  89  65  90 /   0   5   5  20
Columbus        68  92  67  92 /   0   5   5  10
Gainesville     63  88  68  86 /   0   5   5  20
Macon           66  94  67  93 /   0   5   5  10
Rome            60  90  64  90 /   0   5   5  10
Peachtree City  63  90  66  90 /   0   5   5  10
Vidalia         68  94  71  92 /   5   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/Baker
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Baker

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